Laws can always change as more and more people make use of loopholes to avoid taxes. Same how EVs lost their subsidies as more and more people are buying them. Governments always adapt to losses in tax revenue by finding new things to tax, it's the only thing they're efficient at.

Only if there are very few of them. If there's a critical mass of EV refuseniks in the future they will be banned.

At some point EVs will be cheaper on the sticker price and cheaper to run. The US car industry is desperately trying to prevent this, but it looks like China is crossing that point.

(I would be very interested in sticker price / fuel price / subsidy / tax accounting EV vs ICE breakdowns from inside China)

I think they're already cheaper in China, especially on the low-end where (as per Vimes' Boots) sticker price matters more than TCO.

China's got this, for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuling_Hongguang_Mini_EV

That's extremely cute. The Euro version is as low as E13,000: https://nikrob.lt/ ; let's not forget that depreciation will make secondhand versions even cheaper.

New EV prices are still falling for entry-level models. This is not the Ferrari, of course.

In a few years new EVs prices will be below equivalent ICE vehicles. Total cost of ownership already often is.

Second-hand EVs already are a bargain. EV owners complain about poor resale prices, but that's good for the buyer.

And in some jurisdictions, there are "incentives to scrap older, more polluting cars in exchange for a grant or discount towards a newer, cleaner vehicle"

e.g.

https://carowl.co.uk/wisdombase/selling/car-scrappage-scheme...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_Allowance_Rebate_System